Pre-Nomination Thoughts

The PGA certainly threw a wrench in the Oscar proceedings by shining the spotlight on The King's Speech, even if the two match don't match as often as you might think.  Still with the PGA employing the same balloting system as Oscar it does give some great hope towards Tom Hooper's film.  Traditionally, The King's Speech is more of an Oscar film anyway and it really took Social Network winning every critic award imaginable to become the frontrunner.  However, there was always a push back from Social Network fans against those who still suggested other films had a chance to take the gold.

Yet, King's Speech seems to have positioned itself well by steadily building a release pattern and using word of mouth to keep buzz alive.  After my parent's pastor mentioned the movie in this weekend's homily I knew that it is becoming a film to be reckoned with.  More and more late Boomers seem to be discussing the movie and that will be a major factor in its favor to win the big one. Harvey Weinstein surely knows how to mount a campaign, whether he wins or loses.

Best Actress is another category that is very much in play as sentiment grows for the "overdue" Benning.  Portman still has the more dazzling role and the baby, but she also has the stinker No Strings Attached in the marketplace (remember Eddie Murphy and Norbit?)  Of course Norbit might be one of the worst movies of the last ten years, a strong statement even for Portman's film.  However, unlike Firth or other frontrunners of recent years there doesn't seem to be the feeling that Portman is the best actress of the year.  SAG will go a long way in deciding this race.

Lastly there is Hailee Steinfeld who is now very much in play for Best Actress, but she has less chance of winning in the lead category.  If she were to land in supporting she would have a terrific chance of winning in a fairly wide-open field.  Leo might be the frontrunner based on critic wins, but she hasn't shown complete love to take the prize.  In the end it feels like this might be the year for a supporting upset.  Much like Alan Arkin and Marcia Gay Harden.

As for my predictions - you'll need to head over to www.boxofficeprophets.com for those