Maybe Gabby Can Win

There seems to be far more buzz on Gabby than I had thought and that a vote split could help her.  The other sentiment seems to be the anti-Bullock votes might be split among Gabby and Carey still propelling Bullock to the win.  I'm still sticking my guns and saying that Streep wins -- I think theres too much of a sentiment to give the top acting prizes to longtime screen veterans.  Both Streep and Bridges are 60, a win by both will be only the second time that the lead winners were both over the age of 60 (On Golden Pond was the one time) - this could be the deciding factor.

Oscar Upset in the Works?

We're just over two weeks from the Oscars, with many of the major categories seemingly locked up. However, with the later date of this year's ceremony it's difficult to gauge which direction the buzz is building for certain films and performances. It’s best to try and not to over think certain performances and movies. As much as you want to find an upset in Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress races, the truth is all the precursors and buzz point to a foregone conclusion in these races. James Cameron and Quentin Tarantino might pose a threat to Bigelow, but it seems like there is enough support to propel her to victory, regardless of the Best Picture outcome. The two major categories that are most in question remain Best Picture and Best Actress.

Best Actress
Since Bullock's win at the SAG's, people have jumped on the Bullock bandwagon, but her win has never felt that secure. The Blind Side certainly has support as evidenced by its Best Picture nomination, but how deep does that love run? As beloved of an actress as Bullock is, she also lacks the sentiment of being overdue for an Oscar victory. Her SAG win has more to do with the respect she has among all actors, a voting base deeper than that of the actor's branch in the Academy. For many of those voters Bullock is a far fresher face to them than Streep. How deep does that love run outside of the actor's branch?

Despite Streep's two previous victories there seems to be large sentiment that she deserves a third Oscar and her first 27 years. Yet, Streep's performance also comes from a movie that was hardly a critical darling; neither movie seems to be headed to all-time esteem. After comparing these two "lightweight" movies, Streep's performance had garnered more love and praise and that goes a long way in determining a winner. Streep has the further edge in that I expect her to garner more consideration from the other branches (writers, producers, editors, etc) where the Bullock love may not run as deep.

I have read other bloggers that have wondered rather Gabourey Sidibe or Carey Mulligan could win. I won't count out either surprising us with a win, but Sidibe's performance seems to have been lost in the Mo'Nique buzz. Far more likely is Mulligan's chance for a victory Incidents of voter splits have happened in the past (Art Carney beating Jack Nicholson and Al Pacino being the most infamous.) However, I'm most reminded of the Oscars for 2002, when Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis were fighting it out for the Best Actor statuette. Yet, in the end Adrien Brody came sweeping in for the surprise win and a kiss of Halle Berry. To that point the only significant win Brody had taken was from the Boston Film Critics, so Brody was barely on the radar come Oscar night. Granted The Pianist gave Chicago a scare by winning Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, indicting some deep love for Polanski's film. An Education does have its strident following, particularly for Mulligan's performance, while remaining a contender in the Adapted Screenplay category. Mulligan is also young and pretty, an attribute that the Academy likes in their lead actresses (in less Katherine Hepburn is involved). Mulligan's performances has its supporters, whether it has enough to win in case of a vote split is unknown.

Best Picture
The Best Picture race is still very much in flux, which is always a good thing. Oscar night is poised to be Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker, a battle of big and small films. Additionally we have ten nominees for the first time in close to 70 years, a decision that has met considerable criticism. Criticism I have found unfounded as the list of nominees includes blockbusters, moderate hits, critical darling and independent hits. Despite the field of ten nominees most people have boiled this down to a two horse race. However, a growing sentiment has arisen that Inglourious Basterds will take the win, or if you listen Kris Tapley over at InContention that Up or Up in the Air are the stealth contenders given the preferential balloting system.

I'm more inclined to side with Kris on this one, as much fun as Basterds is, Tarantino is a still a very divisive filmmaker, which could hurt his film in balloting. This is much my argument against Avatar a film with many lovers, but lacks love across the board. Furthermor, James Cameron's epic has lost buzz since the Globes and even lost some of its box office luster. By the way, I'm less convinced the Globes win means anything, of the last five Best Picture winners only Slumdog Millionaire won at the Globes as well. Yet, The Hurt Locker is hampered by its small gross, something this is somewhat negated by its successful DVD run. Despite its prestige and Oscar's love for the war genre, I never got the feeling of it being an Academy movie either. The movie justly received critical praise and most of the critic awards, but neither did feel like the personal dramas that the Academy tends to favor. If we wanted to predict the win solely on this Precious or Up in the Air would be the likely favorites. Was it so long ago that these two were the favorites?

Given this we must look at the preferential ballot system, which rewards a movie that has a broad range of love not just small pockets of fervor. Up in the Air is far more likely to have broader support than Precious a movie that has garnered considerable criticism since its critical peak. Up is another movie with broad appeal, however it's hampered for being the frontrunner of Animated Film. However, The Hurt Locker has also owns universal love, all three films have been listed towards the tops of many top ten lists. With three movies poistioned with broad support, its difficult to go against the favorite.

Best Actress

Best Actress unlike Best Actor tends to skew towards younger winners, of course this is partially due to lack of strong roles for actresses as they grow older. 23 of the winners have been under the age of 30 when they won their prize, compared to the one (Adrien Brody) in the Best Actor category.  Marlee Matlin at 21 is the youngest winner of the lead category with Jessica Tandy the oldest at 80 for Driving Miss Daisy.  Much like the Best Actor category the award has also skewed to performances portraying a historical figure, with six of this years nominees falling into this category.  With Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock as front runners this number should increase to seven. Katherine Hepburn has dominated this category taking four wins, accounting for three of the eight winners to be aged 60+.  Like the Best Actor category it helps the nominee to be from a movie nominated for Best Picture.


 Numbers below

Winner Nominated Film: 53 times 65%
Winner From Best Picture Winner: 11 times 13%
Real Person: 16 times 20%
Average Age: 36.2
Over 50: 8 times 9.8%
Under 30: 23 times 28%
Youngest Winner: Marlee Matlin - Children of a Lesser God
Oldest Winner: Jessica Tandy - Driving Miss Daisy

This year's nominees:

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side (45)
Helen Mirren - The Last Station (64)
Carey Mulligan - An Education (24)
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious (26)
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia (60)

Using recent numbers Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe are at the highest disadvantage by portraying fictional characters, yet yield the advantage of being the only nominees younger than 30. Helen Mirren while portraying a historical figure is also over 60 and won as recently as three years ago in much more heralded picture that was a Best Picture nominee.  Meryl Streep like Helen Mirren is over 60 in a film that missed a Best Picture nomination while portraying a historical figure.  However, Streep hasn't won in close to 30 years and is a Hollywood legend akin to Katherine Hepburn, the rules and conventional wisdom don't apply to someone who even won a nomination for Music of the Heart.  That brings us to Sandra Bullock also portraying a real person in a Best Picture nominee.  Older than the average winner Bullock is still young enough to earn a win in this category.  Bullock also has the star power and pedigree to win, but then again so does Streep.

 Best Actress Chart