1977 vs. 2009 - Does Avatar Go Down Like Star Wars?

In the wake of The Hurt Locker’s big wins at the producers’ guild and directors’ guild, much has been made regarding The Hurt Locker’s indie status and lack of box office compared to that of its main competition Avatar. However, if The Hurt Locker even had modest success at the box office like Crash or No Country For Old Men, I doubt we would be having this conversation. Whereas, come Tuesday evening Avatar will be the highest grossing domestic film not adjusted for inflation. However, how much does this box office draw help Avatar’s chances, and does the lack box office hinder The Hurt Locker’s?

Avatar has the broader appeal helping its cause, nor is it suffering from major critical backlash. Most reviews have been moderately favorable to raves. Meanwhile The Hurt Locker has massive critical support, yet suffered at the box office for being an Iraq War movie, grossing less in its total run than Avatar made this past Saturday alone (14 mil). Every Best Picture winner since 1970 has managed to gross more money then The Hurt Locker, a decided disadvantage even for a movie in a preferred Academy genre. Yet, Avatar’s gross is not the overwhelming advantage that many are claiming. Since 1970 only thirteen Best Picture winners had the highest gross in the nominee field, and only seven of those were the highest grossing movie of the year. Box office extravaganzas such as Jaws, Star Wars, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T. and The Sixth Sense lost out in the Best Picture race. Even The Dark Knight couldn’t manage a nomination last year, despite strong critical and commercial support. Quite simply being the box office story of the year will not always bring home Oscar gold like Forrest Gump or Titanic.

In 1977, George Lucas released Star Wars, bringing to life the biggest film series of all time and birthing a whole new geek culture. Meanwhile, Woody Allen had released Annie Hall to a moderately successful 38 million, a number good enough to earn the honor of the lowest grossing Academy winner since 1970. In terms of the awards circuit, the race certainly played out differently than the current race. Neither Annie Hall nor Star Wars won the Golden Globe. Annie Hall won with the New York Film Critics, while Star Wars took the prize in L.A. More importantly Woody Allen beat George Lucas at the DGA’s, cementing his film’s success at the Oscar’s. Star Wars enjoyed larger commercial support, yet it had to suffer from the Academy‘s Sci-Fi bias. Even 2001, was largely ignored at the time of its release and still gaining its reputation as the gold standard of the genre. Fast forward thirty years and we have another supposed breakthrough in the genre with Avatar, even if that breakthrough has more to do with the technology employed as opposed to a breakthrough in storytelling.

In contrast Annie Hall and The Hurt Locker are smaller films enjoying critical consensus, Annie Hall’s box office was more significant than Locker’s meager total. Both films also focus on a hand full of characters, exploring their relationship with each other; While both lacked large box office totals, neither could one accurately describe them as art house pedigree as well (though there are those who will tell you differently). Both movies are firmly planted as genre films themselves, romantic comedy and a hybrid action/war film. Both genres have experienced some success at the Oscars Patton, Platoon, Shakespeare in Love and It Happened One Night all winning Oscar’s top prize. Both also enjoyed great critical support, with Annie Hall cited among Woody Allen’s best and The Hurt Locker the best reviewed war film since Saving Private Ryan. If anything The Hurt Locker’s lack of box office success is a result of the public avoiding movies about Iraq, even one without the politics that have bogged recent titles such as Rendition, Stop-Loss and In the Valley of Elah.

Whether any of this translates to Oscar success for The Hurt Locker remains to be seen, but its lack of box office success should not be a hindrance. Like Annie Hall, The Hurt Locker has been noted as a paradigm of its genre. While Oscar does exhibit a tendency to eschew genre films, The Hurt Locker is in a favored genre, while Avatar finds itself in a genre typically shunned by voters. With the Academy’s growing propensity to award films with more perceived pedigree, The Hurt Locker should have the inside edge to Hollywood’s top prize. Of course come March 7th, the Academy might just have to show their undying love for the King of the World.

DGA

The DGA's are tonight and the contest comes down between Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker and James Cameron's magnum opus Avatar. I'm inclined to say that Cameron has the advantage here, his movie is certainly much bigger and the DGA tends to like big movies. However, Bigelow skillfully pulls off The Hurt Locker. The results also have larger implacations on the oscar race. Only five times has the winner of the DGA not gone on to win the Oscar. If Bigelow wins here I think that ensures a win, however Cameron winning keeps the winner questionable. The reality of a split Picture/Director is possible, but that only happens if Avatar wins Best Picture. If The Hurt Locker wins Picture, I don't foresee the Academy willing to split the bounty with Avatar. Either way the Academy Awards should get some more clarity with tonight's annoucement.

Edge of Darkness

Mel Gibson’s return to the big screen in Edge of Darkness is more failure than success. The problems arise from a convoluted plot, stilted dialogue and uneven pacing. The movie’s premise is simple, Mel Gibson’s daughter Emma comes home for a visit and quickly becomes ill. As the two leave for the hospital, a hooded man shoots Emma dead. Mel Gibson then sets off to find those responsible for his daughter’s murder.

While the premise remains simple the ensuing plot and motives remain too convoluted to remain engaging, and neither are the characters fleshed out enough to care about. The villains are obvious and lack the charisma needed for us to root against them. Some scenes crackle with tension while others seem rehearsed. Most notable of these scenes are those between Gibson and Danny Huston’s corporate bigwig. Both actors seem bored reading the lazy dialogue, leaving the scenes without the antagonism the story demands. Huston’s plays his character without any panache, instead he portrays him as a man simply protecting his company and wallet. Mel Gibson gives Thomas the proper brooding and sympathy needed for the us to have a stake in his quest for vengeance, but the neither is Thomas particularly memorable.

Edge of Darkness also lacks the knowledge of what the movie wants to be about. The movie sets up as a revenge thriller, but also contains elements of corrupt government officials and takes a cynical stance on how our government operates. Yet, since these elements are not properly integrated or fleshed out, the audience is left more confused than intrigued. We are left without any clear understanding of Emma’s motives against her boss, and all the connections between the stories main players. Not helping matters are the lulls in action. Too much time is spent on Gibson imagining and communicating with his daughter as a young girl. While it might add sympathy for Thomas, it is also just plain boring.

The movie does hold a few pleasures, including Ray Winstone’s government operative Jedburgh. Winstone imbues in Jedburgh the right amount of mystery to keep him intriguing. He’s the character the government plot needs to keep it crackling; however, we see too little of his character. Additionally, many scenes are properly tense. These scenes involving Emma‘s boyfriend and friends have the right sense of dread for characters fearing their safety. As expected of a revenge thriller, we do get scenes where Gibson exacts his revenge on those responsible. These few action scenes are quick but also satisfying, something Campbell has proven he can handle in foray with Goldeneye and Casino Royale. If this much energy could have been integrated into the rest of the script the movie would have been much better. However, Campbell neglected the proper pacing to keep that tension throughout this rather bland revenge thriller.

Grade: C -

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Oscars 2009/2010

I have thrown around truly starting a movie blog for sometime now, and what better time than a few days before Oscar nominations are announced? This race took on a whole new spin back in June when the Academy dropped a bombshell announcing expanding the Best Picture field to ten nominees. This makes it somewhat difficult trying to pin down those last two or three nominees. How populist or how small does the Academy want to go? The entire decision was based upon the fact the award was taking on less and less meaning with the general populace. Yet, will smaller unseen movies take hold of those last few spots? Does the Messenger grab a spot? Or does it go to (500) Days of Summer or In the Loop? Or do the spots go to fare like Julie/Julia, Star Trek and The Hangover? That being said here are my final predictions at nominations.

Best Picture

Avatar

District 9

An Education

The Hangover

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Invictus

Precious

Up

Up in the Air

I'm not sold that Invictus will make the final cut. The buzz on this film died with its release and most of its early awards were due either to Eastwood love, or groups trying to match the Oscars. The film seems to have little love, but if it has enough support as being a #3 choice on ballots it makes it in. The Hangover has stronger critical consensus than other summer populist fare such as Star Trek. Both movies were large hits, but the Academy tends to side with surprise hits and populist comedy than populist sci-fi/action. Look at support for films like Back to the Future, Juno and even Ephron's rom-coms of When Harry Met Sally and Sleepless in Seattle. Additionally, The Hangover's win at the Globes does show the movie has that support. Lastly there is District 9, which does have strong critical support but is also hindered by its genre. The Messenger is too small and seen by too little to gain any real traction outside of Woody Harrelson. (500) Days of Summer certainly deserves to be nominated, but again I don't know if it has full support. If they want to nominate a comedy they may want to choose the big box office of The Hangover.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart

George Clooney - Up in the Air

Colin Firth - A Single Man

Viggo Mortenson - The Road

Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

Most people are predicting Freeman to be nominated, but as I stated above I don't feel love for Invictus. I want to choose Matt Damon taking a nomination for The Informant! here instead of his supporting nod in Invictus, but the buzz left that role a long time ago. Additionally, buzz on The Hurt Locker has been high for a few months now which should propel Renner to a nomination, though a snub would not surprise me. Instead Freeman is likely to be snubbed in favor of Mortenson. The movie may not have large support, but Mortenson should have enough supporters to garner him a nomination.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Slide

Carey Mulligan - An Education

Gabourey Sidibe - Precious

Meryl Streep - Julie/Julia

Tilda Swinton - Julia

This field has been pretty much set save for the last spot which has mostly been filled by Helen Mirren. However, The Last Station is smaller and less seen than other films such as the Messenger, so I question its power to be nominated even for Oscar favorite Helen Mirren. That leaves to me to predict Tilda Swinton, in what will certainly gain some gasps and loud applause. Her performance is widely hailed and the Academy has shown love for her recently. Her other competitors Blunt and Cornish are also in smaller films, and I have a hunch the Academy wants to go with the showier performance.

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon - Invictus

Woody Harrelson - The Messenger

Alfred Molina - An Education

Stanley Tucci - Julie/Julia

Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

In a just world Zach Galifianakis would be nominated, but I know most people don't feel the same way. However, over at the Golden Schmoes we aim to change that. I feel that Stanley Tucci will be nominated for what most consider to be his better performance and the better movie. Lastly will Christopher Plummer really be nominated for a small movie and a performance that hasn't gained much traction? Instead Alfred Molina might come in and score a nod. An Education has lost some buzz, but the Academy does enjoy coming of age stories, and more literate minded movies.

Best Supporting Actress

Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air

Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air

Diane Kruger - Inglourious Basterds

Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Mo'Nique - Precious

I came close to choosing Samantha Morton, but she gives a very quiet performance that usually gets ignored, so I'll go with Kruger. Melanie Laurent could easily be nominated, but Kruger is the centerpiece of that tense basement scene which should propel her to a nomination here.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker

James Cameron - Avatar

Lee Daniels - Precious

Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

Had the Oscars stuck with five picture nominees these five movies would have most likely been the nominee field, which means I shouldn't predict all five as directing nominees. Most likely that exclusion would be Daniels or Reitman. I'm inclined to say Daniels as the movie's buzz centers on the performances rather than himself. However, who kicks Daniels out of the lineup? Neil Blomkamp? The most likely would be Michel Haneke, the Academy likes to nominate foreign films in this category.

The rest

Best Adapted Screenplay

An Education

District 9

Julie/Julia

Precious

Up in the Air

Best Original Screenplay

(500) Days of Summer

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

A Serious Man

Up

Art Direction

Inglourious Basterds

Public Enemies

A Serious Man

Sherlock Holmes

The Young Victoria

Cinematography

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Nine

Public Enemies

The White Ribbon

Costume Design

Coco Before Chanel

Inglourious Basterds

Nine

Sherlock Holmes

The Young Victoria

Editing

Avatar

District 9

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Star Trek

Makeup

District 9

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

Star Trek

Score

Avatar

Fantastic Mr. Fox

Public Enemies

Sherlock Holmes

Up

Song

Avatar

Crazy Heart

Nine

The Princess and the Frog

The Princess and the Frog

Sound Editing

Avatar

District 9

The Hurt Locker

Star Trek

Transformers

Sound Mixing

See above

Visual Effects

Avatar

District 9

Star Trek

Foreign

Ajami

A Prophet

The Milk of Sorrow

The Secret in Their Eyes

The White Ribbon

Animated

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs

Coraline

Fantastic Mr. Fox

Princess and the Frog

Up

Documentary Feature

The Cove

Food Inc.

Garbage Dreams

The Most Dangerous Man in America

Under Our Skin

I will omit from predicting Documentary Short and the other two short categories.