1977 vs. 2009 - Does Avatar Go Down Like Star Wars?

In the wake of The Hurt Locker’s big wins at the producers’ guild and directors’ guild, much has been made regarding The Hurt Locker’s indie status and lack of box office compared to that of its main competition Avatar. However, if The Hurt Locker even had modest success at the box office like Crash or No Country For Old Men, I doubt we would be having this conversation. Whereas, come Tuesday evening Avatar will be the highest grossing domestic film not adjusted for inflation. However, how much does this box office draw help Avatar’s chances, and does the lack box office hinder The Hurt Locker’s?

Avatar has the broader appeal helping its cause, nor is it suffering from major critical backlash. Most reviews have been moderately favorable to raves. Meanwhile The Hurt Locker has massive critical support, yet suffered at the box office for being an Iraq War movie, grossing less in its total run than Avatar made this past Saturday alone (14 mil). Every Best Picture winner since 1970 has managed to gross more money then The Hurt Locker, a decided disadvantage even for a movie in a preferred Academy genre. Yet, Avatar’s gross is not the overwhelming advantage that many are claiming. Since 1970 only thirteen Best Picture winners had the highest gross in the nominee field, and only seven of those were the highest grossing movie of the year. Box office extravaganzas such as Jaws, Star Wars, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T. and The Sixth Sense lost out in the Best Picture race. Even The Dark Knight couldn’t manage a nomination last year, despite strong critical and commercial support. Quite simply being the box office story of the year will not always bring home Oscar gold like Forrest Gump or Titanic.

In 1977, George Lucas released Star Wars, bringing to life the biggest film series of all time and birthing a whole new geek culture. Meanwhile, Woody Allen had released Annie Hall to a moderately successful 38 million, a number good enough to earn the honor of the lowest grossing Academy winner since 1970. In terms of the awards circuit, the race certainly played out differently than the current race. Neither Annie Hall nor Star Wars won the Golden Globe. Annie Hall won with the New York Film Critics, while Star Wars took the prize in L.A. More importantly Woody Allen beat George Lucas at the DGA’s, cementing his film’s success at the Oscar’s. Star Wars enjoyed larger commercial support, yet it had to suffer from the Academy‘s Sci-Fi bias. Even 2001, was largely ignored at the time of its release and still gaining its reputation as the gold standard of the genre. Fast forward thirty years and we have another supposed breakthrough in the genre with Avatar, even if that breakthrough has more to do with the technology employed as opposed to a breakthrough in storytelling.

In contrast Annie Hall and The Hurt Locker are smaller films enjoying critical consensus, Annie Hall’s box office was more significant than Locker’s meager total. Both films also focus on a hand full of characters, exploring their relationship with each other; While both lacked large box office totals, neither could one accurately describe them as art house pedigree as well (though there are those who will tell you differently). Both movies are firmly planted as genre films themselves, romantic comedy and a hybrid action/war film. Both genres have experienced some success at the Oscars Patton, Platoon, Shakespeare in Love and It Happened One Night all winning Oscar’s top prize. Both also enjoyed great critical support, with Annie Hall cited among Woody Allen’s best and The Hurt Locker the best reviewed war film since Saving Private Ryan. If anything The Hurt Locker’s lack of box office success is a result of the public avoiding movies about Iraq, even one without the politics that have bogged recent titles such as Rendition, Stop-Loss and In the Valley of Elah.

Whether any of this translates to Oscar success for The Hurt Locker remains to be seen, but its lack of box office success should not be a hindrance. Like Annie Hall, The Hurt Locker has been noted as a paradigm of its genre. While Oscar does exhibit a tendency to eschew genre films, The Hurt Locker is in a favored genre, while Avatar finds itself in a genre typically shunned by voters. With the Academy’s growing propensity to award films with more perceived pedigree, The Hurt Locker should have the inside edge to Hollywood’s top prize. Of course come March 7th, the Academy might just have to show their undying love for the King of the World.