Best Picture
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Up
Up in the Air
I'm not sold that Invictus will make the final cut. The buzz on this film died with its release and most of its early awards were due either to Eastwood love, or groups trying to match the Oscars. The film seems to have little love, but if it has enough support as being a #3 choice on ballots it makes it in. The Hangover has stronger critical consensus than other summer populist fare such as Star Trek. Both movies were large hits, but the Academy tends to side with surprise hits and populist comedy than populist sci-fi/action. Look at support for films like Back to the Future, Juno and even Ephron's rom-coms of When Harry Met Sally and Sleepless in Seattle. Additionally, The Hangover's win at the Globes does show the movie has that support. Lastly there is District 9, which does have strong critical support but is also hindered by its genre. The Messenger is too small and seen by too little to gain any real traction outside of Woody Harrelson. (500) Days of Summer certainly deserves to be nominated, but again I don't know if it has full support. If they want to nominate a comedy they may want to choose the big box office of The Hangover.
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Viggo Mortenson - The Road
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
Most people are predicting Freeman to be nominated, but as I stated above I don't feel love for Invictus. I want to choose Matt Damon taking a nomination for The Informant! here instead of his supporting nod in Invictus, but the buzz left that role a long time ago. Additionally, buzz on The Hurt Locker has been high for a few months now which should propel Renner to a nomination, though a snub would not surprise me. Instead Freeman is likely to be snubbed in favor of Mortenson. The movie may not have large support, but Mortenson should have enough supporters to garner him a nomination.
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Slide
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie/Julia
Tilda Swinton - Julia
This field has been pretty much set save for the last spot which has mostly been filled by Helen Mirren. However, The Last Station is smaller and less seen than other films such as the Messenger, so I question its power to be nominated even for Oscar favorite Helen Mirren. That leaves to me to predict Tilda Swinton, in what will certainly gain some gasps and loud applause. Her performance is widely hailed and the Academy has shown love for her recently. Her other competitors Blunt and Cornish are also in smaller films, and I have a hunch the Academy wants to go with the showier performance.
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Alfred Molina - An Education
Stanley Tucci - Julie/Julia
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
In a just world Zach Galifianakis would be nominated, but I know most people don't feel the same way. However, over at the Golden Schmoes we aim to change that. I feel that Stanley Tucci will be nominated for what most consider to be his better performance and the better movie. Lastly will Christopher Plummer really be nominated for a small movie and a performance that hasn't gained much traction? Instead Alfred Molina might come in and score a nod. An Education has lost some buzz, but the Academy does enjoy coming of age stories, and more literate minded movies.
Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Diane Kruger - Inglourious Basterds
Julianne Moore - A Single Man
Mo'Nique - Precious
I came close to choosing Samantha Morton, but she gives a very quiet performance that usually gets ignored, so I'll go with Kruger. Melanie Laurent could easily be nominated, but Kruger is the centerpiece of that tense basement scene which should propel her to a nomination here.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Lee Daniels - Precious
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Had the Oscars stuck with five picture nominees these five movies would have most likely been the nominee field, which means I shouldn't predict all five as directing nominees. Most likely that exclusion would be Daniels or Reitman. I'm inclined to say Daniels as the movie's buzz centers on the performances rather than himself. However, who kicks Daniels out of the lineup? Neil Blomkamp? The most likely would be Michel Haneke, the Academy likes to nominate foreign films in this category.
The rest
Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
District 9
Julie/Julia
Precious
Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
Art Direction
Inglourious Basterds
Public Enemies
A Serious Man
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
Cinematography
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Public Enemies
The White Ribbon
Costume Design
Coco Before Chanel
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
Editing
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Makeup
District 9
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Star Trek
Score
Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Public Enemies
Sherlock Holmes
Up
Song
Avatar
Crazy Heart
Nine
The Princess and the Frog
The Princess and the Frog
Sound Editing
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers
Sound Mixing
See above
Visual Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
Foreign
Ajami
A Prophet
The Milk of Sorrow
The Secret in Their Eyes
The White Ribbon
Animated
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Princess and the Frog
Up
Documentary Feature
The Cove
Food Inc.
Garbage Dreams
The Most Dangerous Man in America
Under Our Skin
I will omit from predicting Documentary Short and the other two short categories.
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