Final Predictions

Much of this Oscar season has focused on the race between The Hurt Locker and Avatar, the small film vs. the big film.  Earlier in the Fall much of the attention was between Precious and Up in the Air before The Hurt Locker won over all the critics and guilds and Avatar broke box office records while winning the Golden Globes.  Meanwhile attention has also been focused on Jeff Bridges' performance in Crazy Heart, which should finally land him that elusive Oscar.  Sandra Bullock pulled ahead of legend Meryl Streep in the Best Actress race.  Finally a sentiment has arisen regarding Inglourious Basterd's chances in the race, which certainly seem possible (more so in original screenplay though).  When predicting Oscar winners it's sometimes best to throw logic out the window and just go with what seems right, or as I say apply Academy logic.  This is a group that isn't worried about finding a film that may stand the test of time like say the New York Film Critics.  That being said they rarely pick a bad film either and half the fun of the Oscars is just complaining about the choices.  Many of you don't know that the last film to grab to nominees in the Best Actor category was Amadeus (Tom Hulce losing to co-star F. Murray Abraham) or that Field of Dreams was a Best Picture nominee in 1989, I do but I'm self proclaimed geek/nerd when it comes to such pointless trivia (trivia after all has its root in trivial).  Without further ado, my picks to win

Best Picture:  Avatar


All month I've been on a kick for The Hurt Locker, I thought Avatar might behave too similarly to Star Wars which lost to the smaller Annie Hall.  Yet, in the end Avatar seems too big to ignore.  Like it or not, Avatar is truly a landmark film that has changed the way Hollywood looks at movies, and for that might it will get many of the Academy's votes.  So I have to follow my own rules of using the Academy's logic, and despite Avatar's sci-fi status, it is also a sweeping human drama, epic in scope and a part of history.  Oscar likes to be part of history and despite my wish to see The Hurt Locker take this (and the precursor logic) I have to predict Avatar  for the win.


Best Director:  Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker

I honestly think this is one of the easiest categories to predict.  James Cameron could easily be honored for taking on such a massive undertaking, but Oscar awarded him for Titanic, and even he has stated his support for his ex-wife.  Some people think that QT might pull out the win, but there isn't a sentiment that this is his year to win an Oscar for directing and hes a very devisive figure.  That leaves Bigelow whom people have credited her directing as the key in making The Hurt Locker as prominent as it is.  Secondly, unlike Tarantino there is a larger sentiment that this is her year, couple that with her win at the DGA (only 6 winners of this have lost at Oscars) and Bigelow should win.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart


Jeff Bridges didn't enter this race until later in the Fall when Fox Searchlight decided that following the buzz on Bridges' performance that this could set up well in award season.  The decision has certainly paid off as Bridges' superb performance along with a sweeping sentiment to award the veteran actor has made him the frontrunner.  Colin Firth's turn in A Single Man has received heaps of praise as well, but that film's buzz was lost long ago.  The only other real possibility is Jeremy Renner's star turn in The Hurt Locker; however, there is likely sentiment that Renner needs to pay his dues (more important in this category than Best Actress) before they reward him.  Plus Renner's film succeeds based on taut directing and editing as opposed to his singular performance.

Best Actress: Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

The one acting category where there is still some doubt as to who will win.  Lately most people have been predicting Bullock to win, but I'm not convinced (a SAG win doesn't always translate to a win).  Bullock is saying all the right things, but there also seems to be a segment that doesn't think she deserves to win, Streep doesn't have that.  Streep is one of the most popular people in Hollywood and there should be a sentiment that Streep deserves another Oscar (something she hasn't done in 27 years).  If they want to reward Bridges based on a veteran sentiment why shouldn't that translate to Streep?  Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe are not out of this as well.  If a vote split were to occur, I'd be inclined to say that Mulligan is more likely to take the prize.  Overall her performance has been more widely hailed nor has it been lost in the enormous buzz of any her co-stars.  Additionally, if people want to award An Education, this is the best place to do it.  As far as Sidibe is concerned, she is charming but she has been drowned out by Mo'Nique's buzz.  While the movie has lost its Buzz, Mo'Nique kept while Sidibe's quietly faded away as well.

Best Supporting Actor : Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds


Anything else would be shocking, the only other performance with any love attached to is Woody Harrelson's and doesn't have nearly the support Waltz had.  This was won back in May at Cannes.

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique - Precious


Despite her lack of campaigning for the movie and her annoying acceptance speeches, Mo'Nique has won basically won everything save for the NBR.  An upset won't happen, but if it does I would put my money on Vera Farmiga.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner - Up in the Air


This is where the Academy awards Up in the Air, a movie that they clearly loved and has enough support that I can't imagine them not awarding it somewhere.  It was nice to see them honor District 9 and In the Loop here.

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker


This is where you shouldn't necessarily apply your logic to the proceedings, Tarantino has been winning many polls that predicting the Oscars, but the fact of the matter is that Boal is winning the vast majority of screenplay awards.  Tarantino did win once for Pulp Fiction, but that screenplay was edgier and more ground breaking than his work here.

Animated: Up
Fantastic Mr. Fox  could win, but that seems far more popular among the critics.

Art Direction: Avatar


Cinematography: Avatar


Costume Design: The Young Victoria


Documentary (Feature): The Cove


Documentary (Short): China's Unnatural Disaster


Editing: The Hurt Locker


Foreign Film: The White Ribbon


Make-Up: Star Trek


Original Score: Up


Original Song: The Weary Kind - Crazy Heart


Sound Editing: Avatar


Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker


Visual Effects: Avatar


Short Film - Live Action: The Door


Short Film - Animated: A Matter of Loaf and Death