Like Best Supporting Actor, the Supporting Actress category favors first nominees for much of the same reason. Unlike Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress winners are an average nine years younger than their male counterparts. This category has seen three teenagers win the category (Patty Duke, Tatum O'Neal and Anna Paquin), while another nine actresses were in their 20's at the time of their win. This total of twelve wins is only one less than the number of actresses winning after turning 50. Supporting Actress is the category where it matters least to portray a real person, with only eight performances falling into this category. In following with the other categories, having your film nominated for best picture is imporant if you wish to win. The numbers below:
Film Nominated For Best Picture: 44 times 60%
Film Won Best Picture: 12 times 16%
Real Person: 8 times 11%
Average Age: 40.38
Over 50: 13 times 18%
Under 40: 39 times 53%
Under 30: 12 times 16%
First Nomination (1940 and after): 48 times 70%
Youngest Winner: Tatum O'Neal - Paper Heart (10)
Oldest Winner: Peggy Ashcroft - A Passage to India (77)
This Years Nominees:
Penelope Cruz - Nine (35)
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air (36)
Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart (32)
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air (24)
Mo'Nique - Precious (42)
Penelope Cruz last year's winner is the only multiple nominee in the field, so it is fairly safe to assume that another first time nominee will win. Additionally all the nominees portrayed fictional characters to keep with the high percentage of fictional character wins. Mo'Nique is the only actress over the age of 40 to be nominated, but at only two years above the average she falls with in the standard deviation (a calculation I have not done, but by all means you may). None of the categories fall out of the given categories, so Mo'Nique should be able to charge her way to victory as assumed.
Supporting Actress
Thursday, February 11, 2010
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Is Mo'Nique going to win because of her performance, or just statistics?
ReplyDeleteOscar politics make my head hurt.
More performance than stats - all the actresses are fairly even on the trends so it comes down to performance. At the same time all the precursors have claimed Mo'Nique to be the best, when there is a large consensus Oscar finds it hard to resist. Politics always play a part (Shakespeare in Love, The Reader's nomination last year). Actors and actresses have to play the circuit to really be considered or have massive support from the studio to gain traction. Look at Tilda Swinton this year in Julia - a trully powerhouse performance but neglected by the studio, thus she never had a chance to win. If there is a close race always look at the speeches at places like the Globes or SAGs, or who is more roundly liked in Hollywood (Penn vs. Rourke last year). So to answer your question on a conscious level she will win based on performance, but politics still play a large part of it.
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